Here Comes the Epstein Files Vote
So how about this for a likely political pendulum swing. We just witnessed some of the worst of partisan politics, a six week long government shutdown that negatively impacted millions all across the country. Now, we might see one of the most bipartisan votes in quite some time. Plus, are you getting a $2,000 check from the government anytime soon? Here’s how this is playing out right now in the political prediction markets:
👀 What Trump is Watching
Get ready for the Epstein files vote as early as Tuesday. Not only is it likely to happen earlier than most believed (it could have waited until next week), but it also is likely to see a significant amount of House Republicans voting for the release of the files.
Right now, the prediction markets are pricing in a roughly 50% chance that there are at least 280 votes:
That would mean all 214 Democrats and then another 66+ Republicans.
Consider this: according to the Cook Political Report there are slightly more than two dozen House Republicans who will be in competitive races in the midterms. Do you really think they’ll vote against releasing the files when polling shows roughly 75% of Americans are for it?
The sense I’m getting is there will be a large number of Republicans voting for the files to be released. Exactly how many is still TBD. Rep Thomas Massie, who has been spearheading this effort, said this morning he thinks it could be over 100.
🩺 Subsidy Stalemate
The longest ever government shutdown is over. Tangibly, Democrats got little to nothing to show for it. However, they did elevate the conversation around healthcare, and the Obamacare tax credits that will expire at the end of the year:
The betting markets are now starting to back off the idea that there could be a deal to extend those subsidies this year. Within the past month that hit 69%, but plummeted once the Senate deal was announced last weekend.
Democrats say they are still going to fight for an extension. But they also just got steamrolled, as the government reopened without an Obamacare deal. Republicans acknowledge the issue, but aren’t likely going to bite at a multi-year extension that Democrats are now talking up.
Keep in mind: there are seven weeks left in the year, and the House is only scheduled to be in town for four of them.
💸 So Much for Stimmy Season?
President Trump calls it a “tariff dividend.” You also can call it a stimulus check. Whatever your preference, don’t expect it to happen this year. As I wrote last week, this was an immediate response to the elections from earlier this month. Now we are getting somewhat of a timeframe from Trump. The president said over the weekend it will happen “sometime next year.”
Next year, of course, we have midterm elections. No better time to hand out money, whether you believe its good policy or not.
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Hope yo have a great week!
-Blake
Please note: This newsletter is not financial or investment advice, nor is it an endorsement of any type of investment activity.